Data Update & Pre-Primary Analysis - February '26

Data Update - Primary Election Edition 1

Update Information

New voter registration data has been loaded as of 2/23/2026. The data below shows ACTIVE and INACTIVE voters only, in other words people, people who are eligible to vote. The Change +/- is the difference between the current voter file as of 2/23/2026 and the voter file from 2/17/2026 (last update to our database). There is asymetry in between the voter file updates on the NCSBE website and the updates on this website. In the future, we will attempt to regularly update the voter file on a similar schedule as the NCSBE.

Discussion

Interestingly, this week we saw a decline in registered voters in the NCSBE's voter file. The State Board of Elections lists a number of reasons why voters might be removed from the rolls, including moving (to a different county or state), death, conviction of a felony, duplicate registration, requesting removal from the rolls, successful voter challenge, or non-citizen status. County boards are required by law to conduct voter list maintenance and remove ineligble voters. It is surprising, though to see a decline during the early voting period, when voters are able to register same-day at the polls, rather than an increase.

One might expect that the ability to same-day register would cause an increase in registrations during an early voting period. It is possible that some of these removals are the result of people moving from one county to another, re-registering same-day at their new address and precinct, and the county board has yet to input their new registration into the state system. Next week (or perhaps in 2-3 weeks once the county boards have completed their election certification and canvas process), we will see whether or not voter registrations increased overall during this period.

Recent partisan trends continue, with Democrats losing more ground to Republicans, though the margins are still very tight. Very few unaffiliated voters were removed from the rolls compared to partisan voters, even in proportional terms (with green and libertarian having very few registrants statewide). The only ethnic/racial categories to see gains this week were undesignated 'U' and Other 'O'. Young voters were the only age group to increase, with 18-25s rising by 454. New Hannover county was the only county with any significant growth, while Wake County lost nearly 700 voters.

Since the last election in November 2025, North Carolina has added 166,615 voters to the rolls. The majority (56%) of those are unaffiliated, while Republicans (~23%) saw a slight edge over Democrats (~20%). Young voters are the fastest-growing group of registrants (216,939 since 11/5/25) but still remain the smallest age group of registrants (11.9%).

The Numbers

Overall Change:

-5,336 total registrations

Current Total:

7,712,066

Top Growth County:

NEW HANOVER (323 new registrations)

Changes by Party

Changes by Race

Changes by Gender

Changes by Age Group

Top 5 Counties by Change